Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Settlement equivalence unverified. No eligible price gap is available.

Settled, no longer listedContract settles 5 Oct 2026Last checked 4 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-04T23:30:27.768Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

1.9%bid 1.7% / ask 2.0%24h volume $16K · liquidity $22Kas of 4 Oct, 23:30 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-05T15:00:34.018Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

2.0%bid 1.0% / ask 3.0%24h volume $1Kas of 5 Oct, 15:00 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView the event containing this market on Kalshi

How each venue defines this

Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.

These two contracts name settlement dates about 3 months apart. Read both terms below for why: a later date can mean a different condition, a longer deadline or an administrative delay, and only the terms say which.

Settles Oct 5, 26

The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensu…

Settles Jan 1, 27

If Ciro Gomes wins the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement basis

Settlement equivalence unverified

A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.

Confirmed as the same question: Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

No public Crossbook forecast on this market yet. Every call that is made is timestamped and scored on the public record, win or lose.

Context

Settlement equivalence unverified. The venue readings below are not ranked as a comparable price gap.

Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $16,490 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what both venues said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

Related markets

Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.