Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Settlement equivalence unverified. No eligible price gap is available.

SettledContract settles 5 Oct 2026Last checked 4 Oct 2026, 23:10 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-04T23:10:28.055Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

1.0%bid 0.9% / ask 1.2%24h volume $825K · liquidity $76Kas of 4 Oct, 23:10 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-05T22:00:34.980Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

no two-sided marketnobody is quoting both sides, so there is no price to show24h volume $6Kas of 5 Oct, 22:00 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView the event containing this market on Kalshi

How each venue defines this

Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.

These two contracts name settlement dates about 3 months apart. Read both terms below for why: a later date can mean a different condition, a longer deadline or an administrative delay, and only the terms say which.

Settles Oct 5, 26

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this…

Settles Jan 1, 27

If Flávio Bolsonaro finishes in 2nd place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement basis

Settlement equivalence unverified

A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.

Confirmed as the same question: Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

72.0%against a market price of 68.5% at the timeNO
Logged 21 Sept 2026, 19:46 UTC · Brier 0.5184
- Two independent mid-September polls agree on the ordering: Lula first, Flávio Bolsonaro second, with Bolsonaro well ahead of all other candidates — this consistent cross-pollster ordering 12-17 days before the vote is the core signal.
- Downside risk is two-sided: Bolsonaro trails Lula by only ~2-3 points (within or near typical polling error in Datafolha), so a Bolsonaro first-place finish — which resolves this market NO — is a live possibility, not a tail event.
- The AtlasIntel poll shows a slightly wider Lula lead (2.4 points) but also a higher combined top-two share (~86%), which compresses the room for any third candidate to overtake Bolsonaro for second.
- With only 13 days to election day, the window for a late surge by a third candidate or a decisive swing is narrow, supporting staying close to the polling-implied ordering; I discount modestly for polling error, late undecideds, and campaign events.
What would change it: A late-September poll from a major house showing either Bolsonaro tied or ahead of Lula, or a third candidate within a few points of Bolsonaro, would materially move the estimate.
Settlement sourcet-0211

Context

Settlement equivalence unverified. The venue readings below are not ranked as a comparable price gap.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $824,948 on the busier venue. At least one side of this market has no real two sided book, which means the quoted price is closer to a placeholder than to a traded level.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what both venues said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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