Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Equivalent settlement terms · reviewed. No eligible price gap is available.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-28T18:00:32.948Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
2.5%bid 2.3% / ask 2.6%24h volume $2.0M · liquidity $99Kas of 28 Oct, 18:00 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on PolymarketBid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-28T17:55:30.224Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
2.5%bid 2.0% / ask 3.0%24h volume $1.1Mas of 28 Oct, 17:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView the event containing this market on KalshiHow each venue defines this
Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.
Settles Oct 29, 26
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.…
Settles Oct 28, 26
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement basis
Equivalent settlement terms · reviewed
Reviewed as equivalent: the clause from each venue that decides the outcome is quoted below, with the reviewer's reasoning and the date.
“This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.”
“If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.”
Same decision, same meeting, same size. Polymarket rounds a move that is not a multiple of 25 up to the next bracket; Kalshi's buckets are mutually exclusive. They differ only on an off-grid move such as 12.5bps, which the FOMC has not made. Judged immaterial to price.
Reviewed Oct 5, 26 under rules v1.3.
Confirmed as the same question: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Price, last 60 days
Crossbook forecast
- 45.0%against a market price of 52.5% at the timeNO
Logged 21 Sept 2026, 21:19 UTC · Brier 0.2025
- The base rate for a 25 bp hike at any single FOMC meeting is low (~18%), since holds dominate the historical distribution of meeting outcomes.
- The September 16, 2026 hike to 3.75%–4.00% signals the Fed is currently in a tightening posture, and hikes cluster: conditional on the prior meeting being a hike, the probability of a follow-on hike rises well above the unconditional base rate (as in the 2022–23 cycle).
- However, a single September hike does not establish a hiking cycle; it could be a one-off recalibration, and even in active tightening phases the Fed has often paused at alternating meetings, so the uplift from the base rate should be moderate rather than large.
- The retrieved facts contain no inflation, employment, or Fed communications data for the inter-meeting period, so the estimate leans heavily on the prior-meeting-hike conditional pattern rather than on macro signal.
What would change it: A string of Fed speaker comments or September/October CPI and payroll prints showing cooling inflation would indicate the September hike was a one-off and push the probability of an October hike down toward the unconditional base rate.
Settlement sourcet-0212
Context
Equivalent settlement terms · reviewed. The venue readings below are not ranked as a comparable price gap.
Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $2,038,340 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what both venues said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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