Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Materially different settlement terms. No eligible price gap is available.

TradingContract settles 4 Nov 2026Last checked 29 Oct 2026, 19:15 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-29T19:20:29.046Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

38.5%bid 38.0% / ask 39.0%24h volume $3K · liquidity $84Kas of 29 Oct, 19:20 UTCView on Polymarket

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-29T19:15:29.660Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

38.5%bid 38.0% / ask 39.0%24h volume $91Kas of 29 Oct, 19:15 UTCView the event containing this market on Kalshi

How each venue defines this

Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.

These two contracts name settlement dates about 2 months apart. Read both terms below for why: a later date can mean a different condition, a longer deadline or an administrative delay, and only the terms say which.

Settles Nov 4, 26

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event th…

Settles Jan 14, 27

If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Georgia pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement basis

Materially different settlement terms

Materially different: the two venues ask the same question in ordinary cases, but their contracts pay on different conditions. The deciding clauses and the difference are below. The price gap is not ranked.

“This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election.”

“If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Georgia pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.”

Different conditions. Polymarket pays on who wins the election, as called by AP, Fox and NBC or by certification; Kalshi pays on who is inaugurated in January. They diverge if the winner is not inaugurated, and Kalshi's contract runs about two months longer. Georgia requires a majority, so a December runoff is possible; Polymarket's rules for this market do not mention one. The gap is not ranked as a like-for-like comparison.

Reviewed Oct 5, 26 under rules v1.3.

Confirmed as the same question: Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

No public Crossbook forecast on this market yet. Every call that is made is timestamped and scored on the public record, win or lose.

Context

Materially different settlement terms. The venue readings below are not ranked as a comparable price gap.

Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $90,728 on the busier venue. It closes in 5 days. Prices this close to resolution move on news rather than on reassessment.

Related markets

Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.