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Related events, two venues. We rank a price gap only after reading both venues’ settlement terms side by side, publish a probability before the market resolves, and grade every call against how the venue settled it.

Equivalent terms, reviewed · widest midpoint gap

US recession by end of 2027?

31.0%

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-29T17:25:28.478Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

19.5%

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-29T17:25:26.619Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

Apart by

11.5 pts

See the whole board →

Read 29 Oct, 17:25 UTC

The weekly scored table

Every call, once a week, already graded.

Monday mornings. Last week's widest Kalshi–Polymarket gaps, plus every call that resolved and what it scored against the market. Wins and losses in the same type. One email a week, never more.

Open calls · widest disagreement first

  • Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

    Crossbook 37.0%market was 20.3% on 8 Sept+16.6 pts then
    now 0.5% as of 19 Oct, 09:05 UTCcontract settles 31 Dec

    Grindeanu is PSD's unanimously nominated candidate and leads both PSD and the Chamber of Deputies, giving him the strongest institutional platform of any contender.

  • Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

    Crossbook 55.0%market was 67.5% on 25 Sept-12.5 pts then
    now 64.5% as of 29 Oct, 17:25 UTCcontract settles 3 Nov

    The base rate heavily favors incumbent Susan Collins, but the only direct case-specific evidence — a September 14-15 Quantus poll showing Collins 48, Jackson 47 — is a near-tie, which dominates the incumbency prior and pulls the estimate toward 50-50.

  • Ohio Governor winner?: Vivek Ramaswamy

    Crossbook 32.0%market was 20.0% on 29 Oct+12.0 pts then
    now 19.5% as of 29 Oct, 17:25 UTCcontract settles 14 Jan

    Ohio has trended Republican in recent presidential and Senate elections (Trump won by 8+ points in 2020), giving the GOP a structural advantage that suggests a base rate above 50% for the Republican nominee in an open-seat or standard gubernatorial race.

2 calls are past the close and awaiting the venue’s settlement. Every call, with its full reasoning →

Brier 0.2163 over 150 resolved, against the market's 0.1787 — behind by 0.0376. Every row is public.

See the full record →

Informational only. Not trading or investment advice. Prices may be delayed or inaccurate, and a difference between venues can be an artifact — how this is measured.