Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?

Logged 9 Sept 2026, 03:54 UTC · Brier 0.0100

• The Bank of Russia is in an active easing cycle: it cut the key rate by 25bp to 14.00% on 24 July 2026, and cutting cycles are almost never reversed at the very next meeting.
• The Bank's own baseline scenario projects an average 2026 key rate of 14.5–14.6%; given the rate now sits at 14.00%, that math is consistent with holding (or cutting further) for the rest of the year, not hiking, which would push the realized average above their published baseline.
• Disinflationary signals support the easing stance: household one-year-ahead inflation expectations fell to 13.7% in August from 14.7% in July, reducing pressure for a hawkish surprise.
• Residual risk of a hike comes from unobserved factors (ruble depreciation, an inflation print between July and the meeting, or geopolitical/budget shocks) that the retrieved facts do not cover; this uncertainty justifies a non-trivial tail probability rather than ~1–2%.
• Time-decay is minimal but favorable for a hold: the meeting is on 11 September, only two days away, leaving almost no window for a regime-changing shock.

What would change it: Evidence of a sharp ruble sell-off or an upside inflation surprise in late August/early September 2026 that forced the Bank of Russia to signal a hawkish pivot before the meeting.

+7.3 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: Central banks that have just started a cutting cycle very rarely reverse to a hike within one or two meetings; historically such immediate reversals occur in well under 15% of cases absent a major shock.

Chosen by hand.