Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Logged 9 Sept 2026, 19:41 UTC · Brier 0.9216

• The FOMC held rates at 3.50%-3.75% as of late July 2026, and there is no evidence of a tightening cycle underway heading into September.
• The June 2026 SEP median projection of 3.8% for end-2026 implies officials expected rates to be roughly unchanged from the current 3.75% upper bound through year-end, leaving little room for a September hike in the baseline.
• With the meeting on September 15-16 and only 6 days until resolution, any repricing toward a hike would likely already be visible in communications; no facts indicate hawkish momentum.
• Residual risk: an upside inflation surprise or hawkish pivot between late July and the meeting could produce a hike, but the SEP and the hold in July argue the modal outcomes are hold or cut, not hike.

What would change it: Evidence of a material upside inflation surprise or explicit Fed signaling of a hike between the July meeting and September 16 would sharply raise this estimate.

-49.5 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: Most FOMC meetings result in no change to the target range, and a 25bp hike requires an active tightening bias, which occurs in well under a fifth of meetings historically.

Chosen by hand.