Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Logged 25 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC · Brier 0.0390

• The base rate favors no change: the Fed adjusts rates at well under half of its meetings, and holds are the default outcome even in active policy cycles.
• The upper bound stands at 4.00% as of October 24, 2026, well below the 5.25-5.50% peak, indicating the Fed has already been cutting; easing cycles typically alternate cuts with pauses, so the marginal meeting after cuts leans hold.
• The meeting is a standard two-day October 27-28 meeting followed by a December 8-9 meeting; October meetings historically see action less often than the 'live' quarter-end meetings with fresh Summary of Economic Projections, slightly favoring a hold here.
• Countervailing risk: if the easing cycle is active and data-dependent, a cut is the most likely move if any; hikes are very unlikely given the trajectory implied by the 4.00% level, so the no-change probability competes mainly against a 25bp cut.

What would change it: A surprise inflation flare-up or sharp labor-market deterioration reported before October 27 would shift the odds decisively toward a move (hike or accelerated cut) and away from no change.

-14.2 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: Historically, roughly 60-65% of FOMC meetings end with no change to the target rate (the Fed holds far more often than it moves), a rate I state from knowledge of the class since the retrieved sources do not carry it.

Chosen by Crossbook's published selection rule (auto-v1), not by hand.

Formed blind at 66.0%, without sight of the price; published at 80.3%, the market’s 94.5% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. None of the cited facts could be shown to be one the market had not already priced. That check is recorded, not enforced.